21st Century Debate Research (Fall 2024):

Public Forum Debate Topic

Every few months (seasonally) the 21st Century Debate Institution releases a series of debate topics for students to debate at our online (and eventually in-person) events. 

This topic is for both “Public Forum” & “Skills” debate.

For more information about upcoming contests, and how you might participate, please use the “events calendar” from the above menu. Or you can click here: Upcoming Events.

Over the past seven decades, Taiwan has consistently been one of the largest purchasers of U.S. defense equipment. Some argue Taiwan’s military is insufficiently equipped to defeat a PRC armed attack.

[NOV-DEC 2024 (NSDA)]
Public Forum Debate Topic

The United States should substantially reduce its military support of Taiwan.

Background Info. (&Context)
Required Research (Videos & Articles)
Optional Research (Videos & Articles)
Additional Research (Misc.)

BACKGROUND

The debate over U.S. military support for Taiwan involves complex strategic, economic, and moral considerations that have far-reaching implications for regional stability and global power dynamics. As reported by the Brookings Institution, this support aims to deter Chinese aggression and maintain a delicate balance in the Taiwan Strait, with proponents arguing it’s crucial for regional security while critics contend it risks escalating tensions with China.

Reducing Military Support (PRO)

  1. Reduced risk of direct US-China conflict: Substantially reducing military support for Taiwan could lower the risk of a direct military confrontation between the United States and China. This could help prevent a potentially catastrophic war between two nuclear-armed superpowers.
  2. Improved US-China relations: Scaling back military aid to Taiwan could lead to improved diplomatic relations with China, potentially opening doors for cooperation on other critical global issues such as climate change, trade, and nuclear non-proliferation.
  3. Decreased military spending: Reducing military support for Taiwan would allow the United States to reallocate significant financial resources to domestic priorities or other international commitments.
  4. Encouragement of Taiwan’s self-reliance: A reduction in US military support could push Taiwan to invest more heavily in its own defense capabilities, potentially leading to a more sustainable and independent defense posture1.
  5. Reduced regional tensions: Decreasing military support could help de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the broader Indo-Pacific region, potentially creating a more stable security environment.
  6. Increased focus on diplomatic solutions: With reduced military support, there could be a greater emphasis on finding diplomatic and peaceful resolutions to cross-strait issues, potentially leading to long-term stability.
  7. Alignment with One China policy: Reducing military support would more closely align US actions with its stated One China policy, potentially increasing credibility and consistency in US foreign policy.
  8. Economic benefits: Decreased tensions with China could lead to improved economic relations, benefiting US businesses and potentially leading to more stable global markets.
  9. Flexibility in global strategy: Reducing commitments to Taiwan could allow the US to reallocate military resources to other strategic priorities around the world.
  10. Potential for cross-strait dialogue: A reduction in US military presence could create space for direct dialogue between Taiwan and China, potentially leading to improved relations and reduced likelihood of conflict.

Reducing Military Support (CON)

  1. Increased risk of Chinese invasion: Reducing U.S. military support could embolden China to attempt a forceful takeover of Taiwan, as it would perceive a weakened deterrent1. This could lead to a devastating conflict with significant loss of life and regional instability.
  2. Erosion of U.S. credibility: Scaling back support for Taiwan could damage America’s reputation as a reliable ally, potentially undermining trust in U.S. security commitments worldwide. This could have far-reaching consequences for U.S. alliances and partnerships globally.
  3. Shift in regional power dynamics: A reduction in U.S. military support could alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, potentially leading to increased Chinese dominance and reduced American influence in the region.
  4. Economic consequences: Taiwan is a critical player in the global semiconductor industry. A Chinese takeover could disrupt supply chains, causing significant economic repercussions worldwide.
  5. Threat to democracy: Taiwan is a vibrant democracy in a region dominated by authoritarian regimes. Reducing support could be seen as abandoning democratic values and emboldening authoritarian tendencies in the region.
  6. Strategic military losses: Taiwan’s geographic location is strategically important for U.S. military operations in the Pacific. Losing access to Taiwan could significantly hamper U.S. military capabilities in the region.
  7. Increased pressure on other U.S. allies: A reduction in support for Taiwan could lead to increased Chinese pressure on other U.S. allies in the region, such as Japan and South Korea, potentially destabilizing the entire Indo-Pacific.
  8. Humanitarian concerns: A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could result in significant civilian casualties and human rights abuses, which the international community would be hard-pressed to prevent or respond to effectively.
  9. Technological risks: China gaining control over Taiwan’s advanced semiconductor industry could pose significant national security risks to the United States and its allies.
  10. Domino effect on global order: A successful Chinese takeover of Taiwan could encourage other revisionist powers to challenge the existing international order, potentially leading to increased global instability and conflict.

REQUIRED RESEARCH (VIDEOS & ARTICLES)

We ask that you watch all of the videos and read all of the articles and take light notes about the topic that you are researching. When everyone in class has watched/read the materials, it makes the learning better. We encourage students to do their own research in addition to the research provided (assuming you have time).

Required Research (Videos):

Explained: China vs Taiwan,
The Economist, April 29, 2021 [14 min]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ7hGoUEGCM

Why China and the US are so obsessed with Taiwan,
DW News, August 31, 2024 [16 min]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMhle4o0uk0

China would not ‘dare’ invade Taiwan and ‘run the risk’ of US conflict,
Sky News (Australia), October 16, 2024 [7 min]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8l5IwUf7Ik0

Required Research (Articles):

U.S. Military Support for Taiwan in Five Charts,
Council on Foreign Relations, September 25, 2024
https://www.cfr.org/article/us-military-support-taiwan-five-charts

Taiwan, Defense, and Military Issues,
Congressional Research Service, Last Updated: August 15, 2024
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12481

Pros and Cons: US Military Support for Taiwan,
Perplexity.ai, Last Updated: October 17, 2024
https://www.perplexity.ai/page/pros-and-cons-us-military-supp-1F1avuxwRdOvipRrx.hULA
IMPORTANT: This is an AI-powered search engine that allows people to create news articles. It is technically a legitimate source because it is published and available online for all to read, yet I think it would be better to quote from the articles mentioned within rather than directly quoting from the article.

OPTIONAL RESEARCH (VIDEOS & ARTICLES)

[VIDEO] Taiwan: Why the US & China are on collision course for war,
DW News, December 29, 2022 [56 min]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQzAjUW2jis

Taiwan Defense Issues for Congress,
Congressional Research Service, Last Updated: May 10, 2024
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R48044

Contact Information

Bill Eddy,
Email: BillEddy@21stCenturyDebate.org
Phone: 714.655.8135 (I prefer text)
Note: When contacting me, please include your name and class information (day/time). Thanks! 

Scroll to Top